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Yes, but not as much.
Only time will tell.
If true that would probably have more to do with Olympic rules limiting the number of participants per country in swimming finals than with "no Phelps".
US has over 3 times as many swimming medals as any other country historically (Australia is #2 and they are 300 medals behind). So I'd say they will still be far better than most other countries for a long time yet as there's no evidence of anyone catching up.
Watch China.
China is mostly winning medals on the women's side and even then are competitive mostly in longer swims than the US. There are fewer of those than the "sprinting" style events that the US dominates. US medal count includes more gold medals in swimming alone than all of China's swim medals combined. They are still a 3 to 1 advantage in total medals as a result.
If you consider that evidence that China is catching up, I do not. Most of their actual catchup was in the 1990s, when it was discovered that most of their swimmers were doping and were banned. I don't think that bodes well moving forward.
Diving, yes. They're winning there (already). Swimming no.